美元止跌黃金回升，“恐怖數據”即將公布
周一(7月12日)美元小幅上漲，本周初市場謹慎情緒占據主導地位，打壓風險人氣，提振美元。黃金期貨價格收跌，但仍連續第四個交易日維持在1800美元關口之上，美元攀升，美股達到創紀錄高位，令金價承壓。美油尾盤跌0.60%，報74.18美元/桶，對新冠病毒德爾塔變種傳播將損害旅遊出行、進而打壓燃料需求的擔憂令油價承壓。
美聯儲減碼QE、加息尚未取得進展
紐約聯儲主席威廉姆斯表示，在美聯儲減碼QE和加息問題上尚未實現進一步取得實質性進展這一要求。通過購買美國國債和押貸款支持證券（MBS），都提供寬松。他傾向于FOMC先減碼QE，然後再加息。現在判斷通脹走勢還言之過早。逆回購操作有助于美聯儲應對意料之外的衝擊。對新冠肺炎變異毒株德爾塔的恐慌情緒可能是收益率下滑的一個原因。而明尼阿波利斯聯儲主席卡什卡利也提到，美國仍然有700-1000萬人失業。美國勞動力市場到秋季應當變得更加強勁。我也認為美國通脹上揚是暫時性的。對于通脹問題而言，勞動力市場是最重要的因素。
美聯儲6月消費者一年期通脹預期創曆史新高，通脹擔憂加劇
美聯儲7月12日公布的最新調查結果顯示，6月美國民衆對通貨膨脹的擔憂水平達到自2013年6月以來的最高紀錄。據最新調查結果，民衆對美國通脹水平的預期中值為一年上漲4.8%，創下該指標的新高，三年上漲3.6%。此外，民衆預期房屋價格也將繼續上漲，一年上漲6.2%，遠高于之前的平均水平3.7%，食品和汽油價格將小幅下跌，大學學費預期漲幅達到7%
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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