疫苗和疫情相互爭鋒，金價維持窄幅波動
關鍵字：金價維持窄幅波動
11月17日，現貨黃金出現小幅度下跌，由於市場等待更多的關於財政刺激措施的消息，對黃金構成一定的打壓，同時疫苗研發的樂觀消息也在打壓避險需求，不過新冠疫情的增加也對美元走向構成方向力量。
金價自8月份觸及歷史高位後就上漲乏力，因美元走強及中國等地區經濟增長堅韌，抑制了對黃金的避險需求。若有新一輪財政刺激措施，可能會削弱美元並推升通脹，從而提升黃金的價值儲存吸引力。高盛最近重申黃金價格將在2021年受益於再通脹題材，麥格理本周則表示黃金價格可能已經觸頂，這種相互衝突的觀點可能有助於解釋為什麼過去幾個月大多數時間黃金都在橫盤震盪。
在現貨市場，次月波動率上周五大跌至7月以來最低，本周進一步延續跌勢。COMEX 12月黃金期貨收跌0.1%，報1885.1美元/盎司。分析師表示，人們不確定避險資金流的軌跡，一方面疫苗燃起了樂觀情緒，另一方面美國和歐洲仍在與疫情作鬥爭。較長期趨勢仍支持金價上漲，但我們看到一些投資者在某種程度上放棄了看漲押注。對許多人來說，疫苗消息降低了長期持有黃金的吸引力。
市場似乎普遍認為黃金在等刺激措施方面的消息，人們想進入黃金市場，但又猶豫不決，因為隨著疫苗推出會發生什麼情況呢？我認為對黃金而言，總的驅動力將是刺激措施。金價格一定程度上已經消化了所有這些疫苗相關的新聞，這就是為什麼價差如此小的部分原因所在。但“即使有了疫苗，向公眾推廣仍存在問題，”意味著避險需求可能最終會反彈。
隨著疫苗消息的出現，市場對美國經濟復蘇的預期增強，美元會獲得提振，金價則可能被打壓跌破1850美元/盎司支撐
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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