美國大選動盪推升避險需求，黃金迎來大漲
關鍵字：黃金迎來大漲
11月2日，黃金出現巨大漲幅，日內上漲近16美元，由於受到美國總統大選結果的不確定性，市場避險需求本就熱烈，加上全球疫情持續惡化，市場對經濟復蘇抱有較大擔憂，進一步增強了黃金的避險吸引力。
本周將有美國總統大選和美聯儲政策會議，這些事件將決定美元、貴金屬和風險偏好的走向。根據大選預測模型，民主黨總統候選人拜登的獲勝幾率達到90%的創紀錄高點，不過在某些州兩位候選人的支持率依然非常接近。選舉後發生動蕩和有爭議結果的可能性代表著巨大的風險，在最極端的情況下可能非常利好金價。
分析師表示：“如果結果不明朗，金價將回到每盎司1940美元。但無論哪位候選人獲勝，都有持續刺激的潛在因素，各國央行正在擴大資產負債表，利率將在較長一段時間內保持在低位。”
分析師稱，市場認為這一次美國大選比之前的都要更重要。對黃金來說，還是要看實際利率。從3月到8月間美國實際利率大幅下降，而後基本上穩定下來，甚至一度有所回升。這也是金價創下歷史新高後，出現修正並且近期陷於震盪區域內的原因。凱投宏觀預計到年底金價能再次漲回到2000美元/盎司。
本周最大的問題就在於美國大選結果到底能不能乾脆地出爐。如果金價上行突破1925水準，那麼看向1970美元/盎司。突破2000美元/盎司也並非不可能，但可能性並不高。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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