大選風險眾多，市場做好準備，金價連漲
關鍵字：市場做好準備
11月3日，現貨黃金連續上漲，由於投資者規避美國大選動盪帶來的風險，選擇湧入黃金市場以求避險，同時目前市場押注民主黨候選人拜登獲勝，導致美元出現走軟。
美國總統特朗普和拜登的競選陣營在大選日前夜都宣稱己方在競爭激烈的總統選舉中處於取得勝利的有利地位，但也提醒支持者準備好面對勝負難分的局面。出現有爭議的選舉結果或美元進一步走軟的可能性，或為陷入停滯的黃金反彈注入新的活力。
美元指數週二大跌，盤中最深跌幅達0.80%，至93.28，為10月28日以來最低水準。分析師稱，明確的選舉結果將消除當前三個主要市場擔憂之一：新冠疫情、大選不確定性和新財政刺激計畫的前景。無論是誰獲勝，快速而無爭議的選舉結果都將對股市有利，而對美元和債券不利。如果拜登當選總統且民主黨贏得參議院的控制權（並保持眾議院的控制權），這將是利多股市以及利空債券和美元最明朗的前景。
整個市場都在觀望中，沒人能確定美國大選的走向，什麼情況都可能出現。當地時間本週二美國大選正式拉開帷幕，不過結果是否能夠快速確定則很難說。在這種巨大的不確定性之下，市場觀望情緒濃厚。
只要不出現所謂的“藍色浪潮”即民主黨大勝，那麼新一輪美國刺激專案就會出現一些疑問。並且大選結果如果出現爭議，那麼美元會獲得提振，而黃金則會承壓。目前美國的一些關鍵搖擺州民調顯示民主黨候選人拜登領先。如果拜登獲勝，那麼意味著出現更大規模的刺激專案，對黃金是相對更為利好的。如果特朗普當選，在民主黨很可能拿下參議院多數席位的情況下，關於刺激專案的談判可能會非常困難，這對黃金是不利的。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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