美債收益率倒掛，經濟衰退仿佛已成事實
關鍵字：收益率倒掛
美國經濟情況在今年比較低迷，但是就業市場仍表現良好。但是債券收益率倒掛引起了市場的擔憂，一些關鍵字經濟數據更是有所矛盾。多項經濟數據指標均走弱，美聯儲可能採取更加鴿派的立場。
從住宅市場到零售銷售和消費者信心，新近發佈的政府和私人數據均告走弱，促使美聯儲採取了更為鴿派的立場，利率交易員也開始預測今年很可能會降息。
更悲觀的信號還讓經濟學家下調了第四季度國內生產總值(GDP)預估，並作出了今年開局疲弱的預測。
與此同時，在政府部分停擺導致報告推遲發佈後，隨著數據的起伏逐漸被熨平，薪資增長狀況下健康的勞動力市場正在推動美國經濟走向有史以來最長的擴張。
相比於數據發出的矛盾信號，市場看起來更加篤定。美國收益率曲線中備受關注的3個月與10年期利差上周出現2007年以來首次倒掛。在2007年12月美國經濟開始滑坡前，曲線的這個部分首次跌破零後不到兩年，美國經濟就開始衰退了。
分析師認為美國的經濟形勢已經變得非常糟糕，美聯儲今年實際上會降息。聯邦基金期貨合約體現的是美聯儲幾乎會整整降息25個基點。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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