英镑有望连续大涨，两大利好信息支撑
关键词：英镑有望连续大涨
9月29日，英镑兑美元有所上涨，由于美元保持疲弱走势，加上市场对达成脱欧协议的预期有所升温，加上对负利率的押注有所减弱，英镑保持上涨态势。不过感染病例不断增加以及美国政局的不确定，都会对英镑构成压力。
目前落实英国脱欧协议最大的障碍，仍然集中在北爱尔兰问题上。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩指出，欧盟希望达成脱欧后协议，仍相信有可能达成协议。
随着围绕英国脱欧贸易谈判的气氛有所改善，一些英镑汇率对出现了重大技术性波动，这可能意味着这些货币对可能进一步上涨，比如英镑兑澳元有望升至1.93。
如果英国与欧盟达成脱欧协议，英镑兑美元将在第四季度将飙升至1.35，一直认为最终会达成协议，但它可能会延长到10月中旬的最后期限之后，英国首相约翰逊发言人詹姆斯·斯莱克表示，预计会谈将延续到本周之后，现在会谈有可能继续到欧盟峰会，如果真是这样的话，人们对在欧盟峰会最后几个小时达成协议的期望很可能会进一步上升，就像对欧盟峰会的期望一样，但目前处于“谈判的最后阶段”之类的言论，无疑为达成协议描绘了一幅更加光明的前景，这种希望很可能会让英镑本周进一步上涨。
从渔业权到国家援助的独立性似乎是谈判的逻辑方向，考虑到约翰逊在与科维德的斗争中失去的政治资本，平衡已经转向更有利于达成协议，不过这项协议的范围有多大，以及将如何改变双方的经济关系，只有在获得更多细节后才能知道。目前的预测是，如果在第四季度达成脱欧协议，英镑兑美元将飙升至约1.3500，直到2021年上半年才会再度疲软，随着协议的细节和新冠病毒对英国就业市场的影响促使逆转，预计英国央行将利率下调至零。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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