美元走軟，黃金再度大漲
關鍵字：黃金再度大漲
11月13日，隨著市場對疫苗短期內大規模接種的預期有所減弱，投資者仍希望各國政府和央行能儘快推出新的財政刺激措施，美元指數有所下滑，對黃金的避險價值有了明顯提振。
儘管金價走勢出現了波折，但之後的走勢還不能確定。該行預計明年一季度金價2012美元；二季度1911美元；三季度1848美元；四季度1801美元，全年1893美元/盎司。
在令人鼓舞的冠狀病毒疫苗消息公佈之後，金價暴跌，10月期美債收益率在11月9日升至八個月高點0.973％，不過目前已經降至約0.89％。
美國銀行表示，無論經濟狀況多好，未來幾周10年期美國國債收益率都幾乎不可能攀升至1.35％以上。利率策略師Ralph Axel稱，在未來幾周經濟資料和疫情資料“最好的情況下”，10年期國債的收益率最多也只能上升40個基點。
在疫情、財政刺激預期以及未來經濟資料最佳結果的情況下，基於市場可以多大程度上對美聯儲週期進行重新定價，大約0.4個百分點是我們預計的最大升幅。在經濟最理想情況下，市場可能會預計2022年1月首次加息。
當前，歐美疫情形勢依然嚴峻，美聯儲主席鮑威爾對疫苗積極作用持謹慎態度，認為未來經濟仍可能面臨挑戰，引發市場對經濟復蘇的憂慮，避險情緒回升、美債收益率高位回落，提振了金價。考慮到新一輪財政刺激終將出臺，且近期美聯儲態度偏鴿，均為貴金屬價格提供支撐。短期金價或仍有反彈空間，但暫不具備大漲條件，行情可能以寬幅震盪為主，後續建議持續關注各大央行動作、疫情疫苗、大選計票爭議動態及拜登政策表態。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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