伦敦金大幅回调：多重因素交织下的市场修正
近期伦敦金价格出现显著回调，自2025年10月触及4000美元/盎司高位后，至11月初已回落至3960美元附近，单日振幅超1.8%。此次回调并非单一因素驱动，而是多重市场力量共同作用的结果。
美元强势反弹构成核心压制。美联储9月降息25个基点后，市场对进一步宽松的预期降温，美元指数从96.6回升至97.3区间。由于黄金以美元计价，美元走强直接推高黄金持有成本，导致资金回流至美债等固定收益资产。同时，美国10月非农数据超预期，失业率维持4.1%，强化了市场对美联储“渐进式降息”的判断，进一步削弱黄金吸引力。
地缘政治风险缓和降低避险需求。中东冲突进入常态化阶段，俄乌局势未现新变数，而特朗普政府释放关税缓和信号，使得国际贸易紧张局势缓解。避险情绪退潮导致黄金ETF持仓量增速放缓，10月全球黄金ETF仅净增持12吨，远低于9月42吨的峰值。
技术性调整与获利了结压力显现。伦敦金在4000美元关口遭遇强阻力，技术指标显示超买状态。部分投机资金选择高位离场，9月下旬至10月初累计抛售量达85吨。此外，中国央行购金行为趋于谨慎，10月伦敦金亚洲时段涨幅仅2.7%，低于欧美时段，反映出官方机构购金动能减弱。
供需结构微调加剧波动。虽然全球央行年度购金量仍维持400吨高位，但伦敦金库黄金存量单月降幅达5.8%，创2023年以来最大降幅。需求端，珠宝消费占比从2025年一季度的28%降至24%，投资需求占比则提升至45%，显示市场投机属性增强。
展望后市，美联储12月议息会议前市场将维持震荡格局。技术面需关注3960-4000美元区间的突破方向，若美元指数突破97.5，金价可能下探3800美元支撑位。中长期看，全球去美元化进程与美国债务风险仍为黄金提供底部支撑，但短期需警惕“买预期卖事实”的交易逻辑重演。投资者宜采取“核心-卫星”策略，配置比例控制在10%-15%，并设置3550美元关键止损位，以平衡风险收益。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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