英国大选激战正酣 辅助英镑狂飙
关键词：英国大选激战正酣 辅助英镑狂飙
英国大选激战正酣，保守党已赢得279席，距离多数所需的326席越来越近。工党领袖米利班德 (Ed Miliband) 称，工党遭受了“非常令人失望”的大选。这实际上等于承认败选。此外，苏格兰民族党赢得了苏格兰59个选区中的56个，取代自由民主党成为英国第三大党。
大选投票已于北京时间今天早上5点结束，BBC在投票站出口处统计的出口民调（exit poll）显示，保守党将赢得316个席位，有望成为议会第一大党派。出口民调准确性通常非常高，但今年党派竞争异常激烈，不排除出现偏差的可能性。在英国大选历史上，出现重大偏差的情况不过五次。初步结果显示，卡梅伦及其保守党可能重返唐宁街10号。
截止至目前，国会席位方面损失最大的为自由民主党。其席位大面积被工党、保守党和苏格兰民主党取代。自由民主党二号人物、英国商务大臣Vince Cable意外在自己的选区Twickenham负于保守党。随着英国大选初步计票结果陆续出炉，出口民调似告结束。苏格兰民族党(SNP)料横扫苏格兰席次，保守党可望接近取得多数席位，不过他们可能与绝对多数失之交臂，这一结果可能将导致英国两年内就是否脱离欧盟举行公投，而苏格兰也可能会很快再次推动脱英独立。
DailyFX撰文称，截至目前英国大选投票已经结束，进入计票阶段，而最新的出口民调显示：卡梅伦代表的保守党将继续赢得大选，各党派的席位是：保守党316席；工党239席；自由民主党10席；苏格兰民族党58席；英国独立党2席。由于投票席位只有641席，意味着多数派需要321席，这意味着保守党接近组阁要求，也可能大大降低英镑未来的不确定性，受此推动，英镑/美元汇价迅速飙升至1.5400关口之上。当地市场人士称，如果料在几个小时后公布的官方结果确认了民调结果，那么英镑/美元可能继续升向1.55，这将是两个月高位。
形成鲜明对比的是，美元小涨20余点，但交投受抑，因投资者不愿在美国非农就业报告出炉前大举建仓。上周美国初请失业金人口持于15年低位附近，显示尽管经济增长放缓，就业市场仍在改善，这令美元多头感到欣慰。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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