欧元美元涨势减缓 维持高位
关键字：欧元、美元
上周，良好的经济数据和市场对美联储量化宽松政策的不确定性，欧元延续着第七周的喜人涨势。然而，上涨的形态中却孕育着多头渐衰的征兆。
首先，从周线图上可以不难看出，上涨的阳线呈现逐渐缩短的形态，最近的四周中还包括了两根十字线，这足以说明多空博弈的惨烈，且空头后劲不足。
其次，周线级别和日线级别上接连出现两次对1.34关键阻力位的“假突破”，再次说明空头势力“心有余而力不足”。
当然，空头的衰竭并不意味着趋势的绝对翻转，美元若想在一周之内上演绝地反击，恐怕也是难度不小。
1、欧元仍然保持着较好的上涨形态，维持在逾40个交易日的上升通道中；
2、下周是美国劳工部发布8月非农就业人数变化的前一周。而美联储能否在9月下旬宣布缩减购债计划，恐怕非农数据起做一锤定音之角色。在各项经济数据好坏参半的情况下，市场很难对非农数据以及美联储的决议作出很好的判断，所以欧美的走势恐怕难有较大的突破。
3、在周末举行的央行会议中，IMF国际货币基金组织总裁拉加德表示不能过早结束宽松刺激的货币政策；随后美联储布拉德似乎是在和拉加德遥相呼应：“我们再度重申需要关注收缩购债规模所造成的负面影响，缩减购债规模的决定不应仅仅依靠就业数据，而应反应更多的经济数据”。
4、美国国防部长黑格25日就叙利亚政局表示：“美国政府仍在权衡是否对叙利亚动用军事力量，但若奥巴马总统决定采取军事行动，国防部已做好执行的准备。”若美国采取军事行动，黄金作为避险工具又将展现其保值的功能，届时美元可能又会因此而承压。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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