美债收益率抑制金价涨势，美联储顾好自己
关键词：美债收益率抑制金价涨势
3月2日，因为美元指数下跌，现货黄金反弹上涨，但美债收益率的稳定抑制了金价的回升。目前投资者押注美国经济复苏预期，对于债券市场的抛售是否结束，还没有定论。但市场预估欧洲和日本的央行会更在意债券收益率走高。
欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，欧洲央行将防止企业和家庭的借贷成本过早增加。欧洲央行官员弗朗索瓦·德·加洛更明确地称，近期债券收益率的某些上涨毫无根据，欧洲央行必须收回植根于其债券购买计划中的灵活性。这些话令欧元兑美元汇率承压。交易者已经意识到了欧洲央行和美联储在语气措辞上的明显差异。
美联储传递的讯息是一致且坚决的：其1200亿美元每月购债操作要到经济全面复苏才会调整，真正意义上的加息就更远了。美联储已更加重视创造就业，尤其是对低收入家庭，且去年明确承诺允许通胀率在长期处于过低水准后超过目标。
因相信市场过度强调美联储在通胀目标方面的任务，“还有一点值得注意，虽然美联储已暗示不大可能加推针对实质经济的宽松措施，但英国央行、欧洲央行和加拿大央行均已明确表示仍会考虑降息。”
由于新订单激增，美国2月份制造业PMI升至三年新高。在周一公布的另一份报告中，商务部表示，1月建筑支出上升1.7%，经济学家此前预估为增长0.8%。
随着1.9万亿美元抗疫救助方案即将获批，且新冠疫苗接种工作持续推进，使经济出现了一年前难以想像的前景，分析师普遍上调预期，预计美国经济复苏将变得更加坚挺，这是2月份美债收益率飙升，并持续施压金价的动因。
不过可就业就没这么快复苏了。就业岗位仍要比2020年2月时少大约1000万个，填补这一缺口仍是决策者面临的一个紧迫问题。上次衰退后，过了六年才达到了衰退之前的就业高峰状态。
就业市场往往比实际经济活动滞后六个月。况且，新冠变种病毒的出现构成风险，在群体免疫前就重回正常生活可能让病毒有新的立足点。我们可能还会见证新一波并购、破产和裁员潮，潜在的避险情绪将压缩金价下行空间。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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