美股上升，立法以来喜迎一大胜利
市场对美国税改的乐观预期推动美股屡刷新高，不过大摩认为特朗普签署税法方案的那天，就标志着美股峰值的到来，但此峰值可能并不是最终的周期性高点，而是一个临时的、可以交易的点位。
近期美股不断刷新纪录新高，因投资者们对美国税改法案存在乐观预期，不过此乐观预期可能意味着，税改法案的通过标志着美股峰值的到来。
特朗普上周五(12月22日)在白宫签署了美国会送交的1.5万亿美元的《减税和就业法案》，如期送出了自己承诺给美国人的“圣诞大礼”，这是白宫和共和党长达一年的努力结果，该法案中的诸多条款将从2018年1月开始生效。
减税法案的通过是特朗普自去年进入白宫以来取得的第一次重大立法成就。特朗普称税改法案将创造大量就业机会，是给中产阶级的一个圣诞礼物。
税改方案的成功签署对提高雇佣水平和改善薪资水平意味着什么，专家们各执一词，不过由于企业税得以下调，该方案料提振股市进一步上涨。
而最新的美国个体投资者协会情绪调查(AAII Sentiment Survey)显示，45%的受访者看涨美股，意味着其认为未来六个月美股将续涨，该比例较此前一周上涨了8.1%，且远高出38.5%的历史均值。与此同时，看跌美股投资者的比例为28.1%，较此前一周下滑6.1%，且低于30.5%的长期均值。
当前市场看涨美股的程度不如一年前，最重要的原因可能是此前市场乐观情绪已大幅升温，不过当前几未进一步走升。但美国经济仍存大量乐观信号，包括经济数据逐步改善，就业市场愈显强劲，及企业盈利录得上涨。这些利好因素可能在长期内支撑美股，尽管短线涨势可能暂歇。
税改法案签署当天美股录得的峰值可能并不是最终的周期性高点，而是一个临时的、可以交易的点位，或者是随着2017年尾声的到来，值得投资者们思索的点位。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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