美债市暗指年底升息，IEA坦白供过剩侵袭
虽然没有美联储官员的讲话和重磅经济数据，但美国长债收益率走高暗示市场的焦点已经从9月转移 到了12月升息，美联储年内升息的前景依然支撑美元触及一周高位。原油方面，IEA公布的最新报告显示，全球供应过剩的情况还将持续到明年上半年，此前OPEC的报告也对油价不利，虽然API原油库存增幅不及预期，但油价依然大幅收跌3%。
具体市场上，美元指数触及一周高位，受美长债收益率走高支撑，市场焦点转至美联储在12月升息的可能性；欧元兑美元震荡小幅收跌，受欧元区经济前景疲弱和美元走强打压；金价周二延续跌势，受美元走强和美债收益率急升打压；油价大跌3%，IEA和OPEC均预计供应过剩将持续至明年上半年，API原油库存增幅不及预期限制了油价跌幅。
美元指数触及一周高位，受美长债收益率走高支撑，市场焦点转至美联储在12月升息的可能性。12月升息可能性增加推高美长债收益率，而美元跟随美长债收益率走高。周二市场逐渐消化了美联储理事布雷纳德周一发表的鸽派立场讲话，美元重启升势。
目前市场将关注美国零售销售和消费者物价指数，以寻找美国经济力道能否支持加息的迹象。美长债收益率攀升支撑美元走高，焦点转向美联储12月升息前景。美国财政部今日进行的30年期公债标售需求疲弱，此外，IFR，思科等公司今天发售数亿美元公司债。之后，美债长债收益率大幅走高。而指标10年期公债收益率，以及三年期公债收益率均触及6月初以来最高水平。
美联储9月加息仍然十分渺茫。根据CME Group的FedWatch，联邦基金利率期货走势暗示，美联储下周升息可能性仅为15%，12月升息可能性为逾55%。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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