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金银上涨 美指下跌

纽约商品期货交易所(COMEX)4月黄金期货2月24日收盘上涨1.1%,收报每盎司1,338美元,创下近四个月新高,因美国近期数据疲弱以及乌克兰的骚乱刺激避险需求;美元指数下跌0.1%,3月白银期货上涨1.2%,收报每盎司22.051美元。

全球最大黄金白银ETF增持:全球最大黄金ETF(交易所交易基金)–SPDR黄金信托基金(GLD.US)24日黄金持有量增加3.3公吨至801.61公吨。最大的白银ETF–安硕白银指数基金(SLV.US),白银持有量增加65.82公吨成为10,147.52公吨。

摩根士丹利:黄金上行势头短暂 无法维持高位:摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)周一(2月24日)发布报告称,黄金的上行势头可能只是短暂的,黄金价格恐怕不能维持在高位附近。该行称,尽管美联储继续维持缩减宽松的立场不变,但黄金将不得不面临实际利率上升、债券殖利率走高和美元走强的负面影响。

金价和金股存高度相关性:历史数据表明,金价和黄金类股票的走势之间存在高度的相关性,金价的变化一般会紧随黄金类股票的脚步。但最近几年,黄金类股票下跌的幅度远远超过了金价。2013年遭到重创的黄金出现了温和反弹——年初以来,金价已经上涨了近10%。分析师克劳德•埃布在他新发表的研究报告里探讨了金价和黄金股的关系。埃布的结论是,从历史上看,金价和黄金股一直联系紧密。最近几年,黄金股下跌的幅度远远超过了金价。因此,如果今后二者继续维系这样的紧密联系,要么金价得下跌50%,要么黄金股得上涨100%左右。


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