伦敦金续跌 明年或转好
截止至北京时间2013年12月9日15:00，伦敦金报价1229.8美元/盎司，高价为1231.9美元，低价为1225.2美元，波幅为6.7美元。
印度黄金进口较去年下跌70% 走私增多：2013年第四季度印度进口量较去年同期的进口时255吨下跌了70%。2013年印度的黄金进口量可能在700到750吨之间，这个量低于通常水平。一位印度官员称，如果印度政府明年继续其黄金进口限制，明年预计黄金进口量将是其通常水平的一半。为了抑制经常账户赤字，印度政府今年将黄金进口关税提高到10%并且规定进口黄金中的20%必须用于出口，这使得印度国内黄金处于严重不足，很多人只能依赖回收旧黄金的制品以及走私黄金。
德国商业银行：明年金价将温和上涨；近期德国商业银行在投资报告中将2014年黄金均价预估定在1300美元/盎司，不过其预计明年年底金价将回升至1400美元/盎司。该行称继今年金价大跌后，明年将会温和上涨，不过这需要投资需求以及亚洲实物金买盘走强的支撑。该行将明年一季度金价预估定在1200美元/盎司;二季度预估为1250美元/盎司;三季度预估为1300美元/盎司，其中投资需求是影响金价走势的重中之重。更强的投资需求对金价的上行动能而言是必要的，而判断投资需求最好的方法就是黄金ETF持仓变化情况，所以如果明年该ETF持仓外流现象逐渐转好。如果明年亚洲方面的实物金需求大于黄金ETF的外流量，则金价极有可能大幅走强。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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