标准银行：本次金价上扬无法持续
关键字：金价上扬
南非标准银行(Standard Bank)周一在报告中称，“近期黄金涨势凶猛，同时也与我们此前的策略预期相反。然而，鉴于我们对美国长期国债收益率、实物金需求以及期货市场头寸的观察，眼下我们依然认为本次金价的上扬无法持续。”
首先，该行表示，“受投机性空头回补以及新多头入场的双重推动，当前COMEX黄金市场的净多头头寸正大幅增加。目前净多头头寸占所有未平仓合约的百分比为22.3%，较今年1月的10%走高，而且也接近25.6%的五年均值。”
不过，该行强调，“看多COMEX黄金不代表忙乱，拥挤地交易，而且现在的黄金市场已经不是此前的牛市，因此我们对当前黄金的头寸表现持中性观点。”
其次，该行称，“作为支撑黄金市场的重要依据–美国国债收益率目前仍稳定在2.7%水平。自2013年开始美国10年期国债收益率与黄金的关联系 数一直在0.8，比如收益率走低暗示金价上涨。我们相信近期黄金的上涨是因为美国经济增长忧虑以及乌克兰紧张局势推动美国国债收益率走低所致。”
但是，该行预计2014年三季度美国10年期国债收益率将走高至3.2%，四季度将上涨至3.6%，这意味着如果美国通胀仍无太大改观，下半年金价将承压下跌。
最后，该行补充道，“今年起亚洲，特别是中国的实物金需求一直在走低。周一上海黄金交易所的实物金交割已陷入贴水5美元/盎司，而去年12月的该交易所的黄金溢价还在20美元/盎司。”
Wet总结道，“随着实物金需求疲软以及美国国债收益率的走强，预计未来金价将下滑。同时鉴于目前黄金的风险回报率，即便当前乌克兰紧张局势仍在持续，我们也不会贸然加仓。”
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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