2026年6月伦敦金行情分析
2026年6月的伦敦金，走出了一轮令人瞩目的深度回调。年初金价曾在1月逼近5600美元/盎司的历史峰值，随后在3月美联储释放鹰派信号后转入下行通道。进入6月，跌势明显加速，月初金价尚在4300美元上方震荡，中旬便接连失守4200、4100两道关键关口，最低探至4070美元附近，较年内高点回落超过26%，一度回到2025年末的价格水平。月中虽有一波反弹至4300美元上方，但属于典型的下跌中继，随即再度转弱。截至6月24日，伦敦金现报4136美元/盎司附近，全月累计跌幅约8.4%，已连续三周收阴，空头格局主导整个六月。
本轮下跌的核心驱动在于美联储政策预期的急剧转向。6月FOMC点阵图显示委员上调年内利率目标区间，9名官员支持加息，市场对降息的预期已基本清零。10年期美债收益率站稳4.5%上方，美元指数突破100创一年新高，黄金作为零息资产的持有成本大幅攀升。资金面上，全球最大黄金ETF SPDR持仓持续缩减，近3个月国内黄金ETF累计赎回超千亿元，投机资金加速撤离。不过，与2013年那轮暴跌不同的是，本轮有央行购金提供托底——中国央行已连续19个月增持黄金，5月单月增持32万盎司创近15个月新高，全球45%的受访央行计划未来12个月继续增持。机构观点方面，高盛将年底目标价从5400美元下调至4900美元，德意志银行看至4300美元，短期看空已成共识。当前4000美元是多空最后防线，若跌破则下方3800区域将快速进入视野。建议严格控制仓位，等待6月27日核心PCE数据出炉后再做方向性选择。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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