经济低迷加息无望，看空英镑已成定局
上周英国央行8月决议鸽派维稳，并下修经济增长预期，行长卡尼更是警告“脱欧”拖慢经济增长，英镑兑美元在触及近一年高位1.3267后连跌三日，CIBC和法巴均看衰，后者认为三个月后英镑或再度跌回1.26。
周二(8月8日)亚市盘中，英镑兑美元于平盘附近窄幅震荡后小幅上扬，现回吐大部分涨幅，交投于1.3039一线。
上周英国央行8月决议鸽派维稳，并下修经济增长预期，行长卡尼更是警告“脱欧”拖慢经济增长，英镑兑美元在触及近一年高位1.3267后连跌三日，加拿大帝国商业银行和法国巴黎银行均看衰，后者认为三个月后英镑或再度跌回1.26。
年初以来英国经济增长已显著放缓，上周英国央行行长卡尼称，“脱欧”对经济的冲击开始显现。
据观察，上周四(8月3日)卡尼称，“脱欧”进程的不确定性对英国经济的负面影响开始显现，商业投资势头明显减弱，连带着“经济增速也放慢了”。
另一方面，欧元区经济持续强劲增长，上周公布的二季度国内生产总值(GDP)增速超过英国。年初以来市场对欧元区经济增长的预期已大幅提升，但可能进一步下修英国经济增长预期。
上周二(8月1日)公布的数据显示，欧元区二季度季调后GDP年率初值上涨2.1%，高出前值的上涨1.9%。分析人士预计，下半年欧元区经济将持续复苏。
基于此该行认为，欧元兑英镑将仍受支撑，迈入年底，料上破0.90。
上周英国央行8月利率决议如期以6-2维稳利率，并将今年英国经济增长率预期下调至1.7%，在此之后，英镑料承受卖压。
在该行看来，英国央行下修经济增长预期的幅度过于温和，料于11月通胀报告中进一步下修，或令市场重新计价英国央行加息预期，并令英镑在迈入年底之际承压。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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